PRESIDENT’S REPORT 2015
| Prof. Amos Nur (left) with GTEP Prof. Gideon Gradar (right) |
Stanford expert lecture at the Technion:
WAR between the U.S. and China likely – due to oil shortage.
So warns Amos Nur, Professor of Geophysics Department at Stanford University, who lectured at the Nancy and Stephen Grand Technion Energy Program on March 28th. Eight wars or “skirmishes” have been fought over the past 20 years, according to Noor. “If Libya didn’t have oil,” he said, “No-one would have cared.”
There is an increasingly high risk of confrontation between the world’s largest economic powers – the United States and China – due to struggles for control of oil resources, says Amos Nur, Professor of Geophysics Department at Stanford University and an expert on global oil resources.
Nur said that many wars are being waged directly a a result of depleting oil resources and the competition for foreign supplies. The first Gulf War, he said, was intended to cause a regime change in Iraq – which has the second largest oil reserve after Saudi Arabia.
The September 11 attacks in America, resulted directly, says Nur, from bin Laden’s distaste for U.S. support of the Saudi royal family which controls the oil resources for personal enrichment. The crisis in Egypt, says Nur, was also a result of the energy crisis in the shadows.
Astronomical population increases, combined with significant decreases in the supply of fossil fuels, brought Egypt to a position of having to import oil – as a result, food prices doubled , and the cost of fuel rose by tens of percent, which prompted the anger of the masses on Mubarak.
Libya is today at the forefront of global energy politics. As an exporter of oil to the West, there is a stated agenda in national security to “guarantee the free flow of oil”.
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| Complete cycle of world crude oil production |
Energy in general, and oil in particular, are the largest industry in the world. The supply of energy is intimately connected with the world’s other challenges – terrorism, war, poverty, global-warming, water. However, limited oil resources and astronomical rises in demand for energy means many countries have already reached peak oil production. The US peaked in 1971, and became a major importer of oil from abroad. Today, it imports about two-thirds of its oil.
With an increase in standards of living, economic growth and increasing population, China has also become a major oil importer. China is now competing with the U.S. for global oil resources – particularly in the Middle East. In this, a major supplier is Iran – against which China opposes sanctions.
“Ultimately, if the crisis is not managed properly, it can lead to a confrontation between two powers,” warned Nur. “Anyone who thinks this is far-fetched must remember that in World War II, the Japanese decided to destroy the U.S. Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor and to risk a war, just to ensure access to the oil wells of Sumatra. Rommel was also not racing just to kill the Jews in Israel; he wanted control of Middle Eastern oil wells, especially those in Iraq that had been discovered in the twenties.”
Nur added that the whole world is approaching peak oil and gas. In the ‘seventies, the US imported cheap oil from the Middle East. When the whole world passes its peak, there is no longer the import option.
Nur also addressed the issue of alternative energy. “It is not ‘alternative’,” he said, “It is a fundamental part of the energy we will need in the future. We will need both… and more.”
Referring to Israel’s recent natural gas discovery, Nur said that Israel should keep the gas for itself and export it, despite the temptation of a quick return of investment.
Technion’s Grand Technion Energy Program is essential, says Nur. “Israel today lacks the people with the technical manpower required to manage future energy sources – including natural gas – in the right
way.”
way.”
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Where world energy supply reaches Ground 0.
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“Worldwide per-capita oil consumption is closely correlated with the standard of living. In developing nations like China and India increasing prosperity therefore requires increased per-capita oil consumption. However, oil is a finite resource whose production globally is about to begin to decline irreversibly. Consequently the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict in which the Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the war in Iraq are just the first three skirmishes. These skirmishes pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China.”
Visit Prof. Amos Nur’s homepage to download his compete report: Oil an War: A Grim Earth Sciences’ Point of View.
